Hon. Martha Karua in Boston

The new constitution allows anyone who thinks he or she can meet the requirements to run for President to go ahead and run for the presidency or any other post. When Parliament defeated a bill that would allow presidential candidates to vie for other seats like Senator, Governor or Member of Parliament this will probably mean only the very serious candidates will be left.

More than 15 Kenyans are expected to put their name for the seat of President. Some of the politicians expected to be on the ballot second Tuesday of August 2012 include: Current Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, Current Prime Minister Hon. Raila Odinga, Current Deputy Prime Minister Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta, Hon. George Saitoti, Hon. William Ruto, Hon.  Hon. Martha Karua, Hon. Peter Kenneth, Hon. Mutava Musyimi, Former M.P Hon. Raphael Tuju, Permanent Secretary Minister of Education James Ole Kiayapi, Former Speaker of the House Francis Ole Kaparo, Founder of Massai Education College Ledama Olekina, Former M.P for Kikuyu Paul Muite and of course others will come in. 

The main thing here is that more presidential candidates will be good for Kenya democracy and everyone who wants to run should be encouraged so that Kenya can get the best leader. Of course an expenditure of about Kshs 1 billion per candidate will be required to run a good campaign which is also good for the economy. 

The main clauses of the Constitution as they relate to presidential candidates are: 

136 (2) An election of the President shall be held––(a) on the same day as a general election of Members of Parliament, being the second Tuesday in August, in every fifth year. This thus limits many from anticipating to run for legislative body as well as executive. 
This clause ensures that one cannot try the presidency and then look for another political seat.

137. (1) A person qualifies for nomination as a presidential candidate if the person— (a) is a citizen by birth; (b) is qualified to stand for election as a member of Parliament; (c) is nominated by a political party, or is an independent candidate; and (d) is nominated by not fewer than two thousand voters from each of a majority of the counties.

This clause will be tricky because Independent candidates maybe sponsored to enter the race as late as three months provided in the Constitution, and this provision can affect the percentage distribution of votes. Supporters of a candidate who has money can easily sponsor a candidate so as to achieve a certain percentage, and indeed this candidate could eventually be one of the first two top candidates in getting votes. For example let us think of a scenario whereby a certain candidate is anticipated to be number 3 in accordance with these percentages: 25%, 23%, 22%. Then supporters of the person with 22% of the votes could sponsor a candidate that could end up taking 3% of votes from number 2 without necessarily exceeding the votes of the first  candidate who has 25% if the votes. In this scenario the candidate who originally had 25% of the votes would find himself or herself competing with the person who originally had 22% of the votes due to the reduction of the original 23% of the votes of the second candidate by the 3% votes of an Independent candidate.

138. (4) A candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives—(a) more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and (b) at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties.

This clause will be hard to achieve in the first ballot on the second Tuesday of August 2012. However it can be achieved by a candidate who has a unique strategy.

138 (5) If no candidate is elected, a fresh election shall be held within thirty days after the previous election and in that fresh election the only candidates shall be— (a) the candidate, or the candidates, who received the greatest number of votes; and (b) the candidate, or the candidates, who received the second greatest number of votes.

Based on this article and clause (5) it is obvious in the first election with about 10 candidates expected the percentage shall be shared anywhere from 0% - 30% and no one will get the 50% of the votes. Thus a candidate’s first step is to aim at being in the second ballot. 

138 (7) The candidate who receives the most votes in the fresh election shall be declared elected as President.

Based on this clause and based on places where this is normal practice what mainly happens is if the first ballot had, say, 14 million votes this will reduce to 10 million and the political race here is for a presidential candidate to know the strategy that will increase his or her votes to get to the 50% plus one required in 30 days.