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When Will China Overtake U.S Economy Per President Kenyatta Prediction?

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China & U.S (Without Alaska) fitted into Africa. China & U.S (Without Alaska) fitted into Africa.

“The People’s Republic of China will soon be the world’s largest economy. Its return, after two centuries, to that position has lessons to teach us, not least that infrastructure matters,” said President Uhuru Kenyatta during the signing of the financial agreements that will fund the Standard Railway Gauge (SGR). The question that will be debated until it happens is: When will China Gross Domestic Product (GDP)overtake the U.S GDP to become the worlds largest economy?

Gross Domestic Product that is also called the country economy is the total economic activity in a nation in a given year. It is mainly generated by the economic activity the population of a country engages on day to day and year after year based on natural resources and further based on international factors like: Trade, financing and others.   

Comparisons between U.S. (Largest Economy) and China (2nd largest) 

  • GDP: U.S as the largest economy is a $16.8 trillion and China a $9.2 trillion economy the U.S GDP ahead by $7.6 trillion. 
  • Land: The land areas are U.S 9,826,675 sq km and China 9,596,961 sq km means the two countries are almost equal in size. 
  • Population: The U.S population is 318 million and China at 1.35 trillion. China has over 1 trillion more people than the U.S.  
  • Per Capita: Based on the data U.S Per capita is $52,000 and China per capita is $6,800.    

The fact that the U.S has achieved a Per Capita of $52,000 means that China can still grow Per Capita income and in so doing grow GDP. If China was to grow at an average of 6% and U.S at an average of 2%, after both countries deduct respective population growth, China economy on the 18th year 2032 would be $26 billion and would surpass the U.S economy at $24 billion then. 

Africa with a total population of 1.1 billion and a land area of 30.3 million sq km will play a big role on whether China economy overtakes U.S economy. In the same period, of 18 years, that estimates predict Africa population will double the economy that is currently at $1.8 trillion could grow to reach $14 trillion before population is factored. The $12.2 trillion will impact growth of China & U.S. economies. 

China is today investing money to large projects in Africa, like the Standard Railway Gauge Kenya-Uganda- Rwanda. The railway will benefit China with a transport system for natural resources from Africa to supply domestic growth needs as well as become a supply system of imports. The $4 billion today set to go to the SGR will impact the GDP of China in next 5 years with sale of manufactured products and technology. From Year 5 – 20 the same amount will impact GDP with interest as loan amount and interest is paid back each year adding to China GDP growth.   

U.S overtook China economy for it set its economic systems over two centuries ago based on a constitutional system that encouraged invention, innovation and entrepreneurship, individual liberty and rights, and fair business practices. Through, “Young Leaders Africa Initiative (YALI),” the U.S will also be looking to expand U.S economy as Africa progresses. The U.S is looking to add through revenues and profits based on corporations that emerge and grow the economies through capital markets that are today globally interconnected.  

President Uhuru Kenyatta did not define the year that “Soon,” applies to and therefore the prediction shall remain just as, “Soon.”    

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