Kalonzo, Karua, Odinga, Kenneth, Tuju & Uhuru.

To become the 4th president of Kenya one will have to win 50% plus one of votes cast. As the Kenya elections approach, debates and views are ongoing wherever Kenyans are. “The ‘Muskali Kombo approach 2007’ of seating back and not running only to lose political power will not work,” Kenyans abroad discuss and express views like: “Expect all politicians to use, ‘Kalonzo Musyoka approach’ of running to have a political power base. With the consideration that besides the President and Deputy President Seats there are 14 – 22 Cabinet Secretary Positions, today called ‘Minister’s,’ to be filled, these political positions will be easier to get if one has a political base.” The discussants agree that there is no strong candidate or party system that can win 50% plus one of the votes cast on Election Day. This means there will be a run-off. The goal for each candidate who wants to be the 4th President of Kenya thus becomes to finish first or second or develop a political power base. Based on the above analysis and candidates who have expressed interest, the prediction is that the 100% will be divided into three groups: Top 5 Group, Second 5 Group and Last Group.

Sharing 100% to the 3 Groups

The Top 5 Group will be made up of first five finishers who will share about 70% of vote and most likely will be divided as follows: (18%, 16% 13% 12% 11%) 

The Second 5 Group will be made up of the second group of five finishers who will share about 25% that will most likely be divided as follows: (9%, 7%, 4%, 3%, 2%) 

The Last Group will be made up of the remaining candidates and will share the last 5%. 

Who will be in the run-off?

With about 15 - 20 candidates expected to be on the Presidential ballot and further based on the sharing of 100%, the run-off would be between the candidates who get 18% and 16%. If about 20 million voters register this would mean the 18% would be anywhere between 3 million and 3.6 million and 16% between 2.6 million and 3.2 million depending on turnout. Based on the current candidates who have expressed interest the following is our prediction of how the top 10 will share 95% of vote cast. And the prediction of the most likely candidates to be in the Top 5 finishers from which the top 2 will compete in the run-off as Kenyans elect the 4th President. 

(1.) Uhuru Kenyatta – 51 KANU – Kenya African National Union

Whether “A” in KANU stands for ‘African’ or ‘Alliance,’ Uhuru may have to decide whether he needs to keep debating the former President Moi. Uhuru currently can be said to have a loyal base of about 11% of the estimated voters. The loyal base derived mainly from the Kikuyu tribe who are currently 17% in the country. We expect him to be on the ballot election day. Unless he has the weakest strategy team that would lose this base support, he will finish in the Top 5 Group. He will need about 7% of the vote to get to the 18% predicted to be number 1 finisher. With an estimated Kshs 45 billion of wealth, Uhuru has the resources needed: Name recognition, money, political skill and experience of campaigning nationally, to finish in one of the top two positions: He would be best suited if he found a running mate from Coast region, MijiKenda community. 

 (2.) Raila Odinga – 67 ODM – Orange Democratic Movement

Current opinion polls show he is on the top favored candidate to win. As is always, opinion polls before a campaign favor a recognized name. Prime Minister Raila Odinga has a loyal following derived from the Luo tribe who based on census are 4 million, about 10% of the 38.6 million Kenyans. We consider him to have a strong base support of 70% from the Luo 10% and start him with a strong base of 8% and current opinion base support of about 25%. Unfortunately, like when he ran against Kibaki who in mid year 2007 was over 50% support and considered unbeatable he too will most likely go through the same erosion of support. Negative stories appearing in media will help erode this support. Raila, however, is a great campaigner and strategist and could end up on the Top 5 Group. He however may also find himself in the Second 5 Group depending on how negative the campaign against him becomes. Raila may also have no choice but to stick with Musalia Mudavadi as running mate or risk creating another erosion of support. If he however decides to change his campaign strategy he would be best suited to get a running mate from Meru or Kamba region.      

(3.) Kalonzo Musyoka – 59 WDP – Wiper Democratic Party

The current Vice President of Kenya changed his party name to Wiper Democratic Party. If anyone would be expected to campaign hardest to ascend to the seat of president it would be Kalonzo. The Kamba community will once again stick with him. Like the Lou, the Kamba also make up about 10% of the population. We predict Kalonzo to start with a base level of 80% of Kamba or 8% of the national vote. Based on who he selects as running mate he will in all likelihood get the 3% to put him in our projected Top 5 Group. The strategy he now has to work on is: How do I get to number one or two in the pack? He will be best suited if he got someone from Kisii or Nyamira Counties in Nyanza region as his running mate.     

(4.) Moses Wentagula – 56 FORD-K – Forum for Restoration of Democracy-Kenya

Coming from Western Kenya, the Minister for Foreign Affairs inherited the “Muskali Kombo power” and will be looking to become the power base of Luhya Community as he aims to dethrone the inheriting families of Wamalwa and Mudavadi. The Luhya are the second largest tribe in Kenya; they are however known for not rallying behind even their own. In 1997 they gave Moi another term and Wamalwa a poor 4th finish. Like his namesake ‘Moses’ in the bible, Wentagula has the opportunity to lead the second largest tribe in Kenya to the top office if he can convince them that it is high time they stopped settling for second. Most likely Moses will this time around manage to be to be in the Second 5 Group. If he gets the estimated 7%, 4% or 3%, he will be able to get a Cabinet Secretary seat. He would be best suited to have a running mate from Kenya-Somali background from Mandera County.

(5.) Martha Karua – 55 NARC-K – National Rainbow Coalition-Kenya

Her tough stand in the constitution in 2007 elections, and her quitting the cabinet created her support as well as lost her support. Martha, the Iron Lady as called, is a woman who can bring about an interesting dynamic of gender base. Gender base is normally made of men attracted to a strong woman candidate and women who want a woman president. Martha Karua team could also be said to be many steps ahead as she is leading in the Facebook. Based on all factors she is one who can emerge in Top 5 Group or Second 5 Group. She is best suited for a running mate from Coast or Rift Valley and a man.      

(6.) Professor George Saitoti - 67 PNU – Party of National Unity

The current Minister of Internal Security has been Vice President of Kenya. If order of when one became Vice President is followed, he would be next in line. Even though he has held powerful offices, he might not have a strong base. He has the cash and the Goldenberg scandal label. With the best strategist and strategy money can buy, Saitoti can make a good run for the President and finish in the Top 5 Group and even come second. We however currently predict he will in all likelihood finish in the Second 5 Group or Last 5 Group. His run maybe not one motivated by looking for a Cabinet position but one of fulfillment that he run for president similar to the Simeon Nyachae run of 2002. His path to winning would be best suited by choosing a running mate from Kenya Abroad community and one of changing his campaign image from one of “Politician” to one of “Professor.”          

(7.) William Ruto - 46 URP – United Republican Party 

When Ruto found out that he was not guaranteed the UDM party presidential candidacy, he immediately knew this was no time to take chances. He has since launched URP with other big names. Ruto has a national name that creates both positive and negative passions. The heir of Moi power in Rift Valley will in all likelihood be on the presidential ballot on Election Day if he hopes to retain his power in the Kalenjin community. His biggest threat will be the true inheritors of former President Moi power who will use their vast resources to find ways to dethrone Ruto. He is likely to have a 50% loyal base of the 13% Kalenjins that would give him about 7% of the 100% national vote. His strategy to bring former speaker Kaparo, Ali Mwakwere of Coast and Jirongo of Western could add him some support. He can finish in the Top 5 Group but most likely he will finish in the Second 5 Group. He is best suited to choose a running mate for Coast and Ambassador Ali Mwakwere fits the profile.     

(8.) Peter Kenneth – 47 KNC – Kenya National Congress 

Running under Kenya National Congress, “PK” as called by many, has been defined as the best manager to whom any investor would like to entrust his or her resources. He currently has a Diaspora, Intellectual and Youth base which comprise ‘The Change base.’ The change base is estimated to be about 6 million voters in Kenya and another 2 million from abroad if election body uses the right systems and does not disfranchise the Kenyans. If Peter Kenneth captures 60% of this vote he will easily get to the 18% estimated and become number 1. Unless he does anything to tarnish his image, he will be in the Top 5 Group. He would be best suited to choose a V.P from Western Kenya or from the Kenyans abroad.      

(9.) Raphael Tuju – 53 PPP – Progressive Peoples Party

The PPP candidate was stoned in Nyanza after he declared his candidacy and visited Nyanza. He however showed he is not backing down and is ready to become President.  As Tuju tailors his message he will look for the change vote that is normally held by about 25% of every community independent thinkers. Like Kenneth he is best suited to craft a message of hope and change. Change candidates are normally propelled forward by factors not easily detectable. Based on the type of message he crafts and the style he uses he could end up in the Top 5 Group or the Second 5 Group or Last Group. The destiny of his campaign rests with him. He would be best suited to get a running mate from Mount Kenya region.      

(10.) Mutava Musyimi – 60 Independent  

The current Member of Parliament for Gachoka has not declared which party he will run under. For now we consider he will join as an Independent Candidate. The former Secretary General to the National Council of Churches of Kenya could create a base following through religious organizations. If anyone can tailor a message to get the churches behind him under the change vote then he can get to the Top 5 Group. For now we predict he will be in Second 5 Group or Last Group based on his campaign approach. He would be best suited to pick a running mate from Rift valley or Western and one not necessary from a strong religious background or from a different religion, like Muslim, to show he will not be aiming to make the country a theocratic state. 

(11.) Eugene Wamalwa LPK LPK - Labor Party of Kenya 

The brother to the late Michael Wamalwa and son of the late Senator William Wamalwa who was part of the 41 senators in the 1963 senate before it was abolished, is also planning to run for the top seat. In search of who could be the leader of Luyha people, Eugene was supported by Uhuru and Ruto. However, he has not yet established the image and resources of popular politics that maybe needed to galvanize the Luhya community to follow him. He will most likely finish in the Second 5 Group or Last Group. He could easily be appointed as Cabinet Secretary regardless of whoever wins if he establishes a political base.        

(12.) James Kiyaipi – 51 RBK – Restore Build Kenya Party 

If any party could capture the imagination of change it would be the Restore Build Kenya, RBK, party founded by Professor James Kiyaipi. The 51 year old former Alliance High School student who is the current or former Permanent Secretary Ministry of Education and hails from Narok County will in all likelihood end in the Second 5 group or Last Group. His best running mate could be someone from Nairobi that can capture the imagination of the youth.

(13.) Mukisha Kituyi - 56 New FORD-K – New Forum for Restoration of Democracy-Kenya

He has not yet made his intentions to run for President. He however could be a person who could get to the Top 5 Group or Second 5 Group and become the Luhya leader and change leader that Kenya looks for. If he were to run his best bet would be to pick a running mate from Central or Nairobi regions.        

The Last Group sharing 5% 

Two or three in the above will fall in this category. The others based on the parties and persons who have expressed intentions will be (14.) Safina – Paul Muite who has expressed interest. The following parties if they decide to field candidates, (15.) Democratic Party-DP, (16.) FORD-People, (17.) Chama Cha Uzalendo, (18.) Mazingira Green Party of Kenya, (19.) NARC 20. Shirikisho Party of Kenya, (21.) Sisi Kwa Sisi, (22.) United Democratic Movement –UDM, (23.) Forum for the Restoration of Democracy–Asili – Ford-A, (24.) National Alliance Party of Kenya, (25.) Madaraka People's Movement and (26.) PICK. 

Also in the last group will be Independent candidates and Kenyans returning from abroad who have expressed interest in becoming the 4th President of Kenya. (27.) Kingwa Kamenchu, returning form oxford whose popular facebook has her recorded her as: “Incoming president of Kenya.” (28.) Ledama Olekina who lived in Boston U.S. (29.) George Kenyatta Muumbo from Alabama. (30.) Jaffer Isaac Sora from U.K. (31.) George Wajackoyah from Chicago and (32.) A former aspirant for Starehe seat who currently lives in Boston region.