Riots in Nairobi 2007

Many riots and civil wars could start from anything. The 1992 Los Angeles riots and civil unrest started after a jury verdict of, "Not guilty" for four Los Angeles police officers who were videotaped beating a black driver after a dangerous high-speed car chase. Once the riot started thousands of people would riot, loot, assault, kill and burn buildings. 53 people were killed, 10 shot by the military or L.A police. More than 2,000 people were injured. About 3,600 fires were set on 1,100 buildings and property of over $1 billion destroyed in six days. It would take the deployment of U.S. Army and U.S Marines after L.A. Police and the National Guard were unable to stop the violence. The Kenya violence after elections that can be attributed to announcement of two elections results, with two different winners, would see more than 1000 Kenyans killed, 600,000 displaced and thousands injured. Since this riot about 220 riots have occurred around the world with some recording deaths of up to 2000 people.

Riots that escalate to civil wars and looting sometimes are not necessary about what started them. In L.A the riots sparked by the jury verdict quickly escalated to becoming a war of the Black community and the South Korean community, both living in South L.A. In Kenya the riots took a similar trend and quickly escalated to looting and killing and displacing others as tribal conflicts. When riots escalate because a vacuum of deterring them exists they can also be manipulated in so many different ways. The Kenya riots are now stories of well organized planned crimes against humanity in which four Kenyans now face charges in the ICC.      

In the conducting of any election there will be emotions as a party or person that has spent money and resources to look for job that will come from a majority of the people voting wait to hear results. The main lesson that should be learnt is that those employed to be the election officers should show a clear grasp and understanding of the process and be tough. 2012 elections will test the persons who are now members in IEBC, the Judiciary System and candidates who are competing character based on their belief they should win and if they don’t the system is bad or voters should be punished vis-a-vis the ability of knowing where two or more people compete there has to be a loser.     

In trying to look at the failures of 2007 we established some few things that IEBC and even Kenyans should look out not to be repeated again if Kenyans wish to avoid violence.      

System of Voting & Tallying Votes 

The IEBC should be ready to make known the system of voting it shall adopt as early as possible. They should clearly state the rules that shall apply. The system should tell every Kenyan voter how the process will go. The Kenyans should study the system and advice on its merits and demerits so it can be improved on to avoid rise of emotions.    

Opinion Polls verses Voting Results  

The Kenya Elections 2007 is argued by some to have been decided by one company of opinion polls, Steadman. Kenyans should be made aware that opinion polls can be wrong. For example, in 2008, 2 days before an election in a primary election in New Hampshire, U.S, 11 well established U.S media organizations published these opinion polls: Suffolk/WHDH, Obama 39%, Clinton 34%, Others 27%. America Research Group, Obama 40%, Clinton 31%, Others 29%. Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Obama 42%, Clinton 29%, Others 29%. Rasmussen Obama 37%, Clinton 30%, Others 33%. CNN/WMUR/UNH Obama 39%, Clinton 30%, Others 31%. CBS News Obama 35%, Clinton 28%, Others 37%. Two days later after 287,000 voters cast their votes the true result was: Clinton 39%, Obama 36%, Others 25%. All 11 polls got it wrong Rueters/Zogby/C-Span adding 6% favor for Obama and deducting 11% favor for Clinton. 

The message 2012 by candidates and parties should be opinion polls are not the outcome of the election and are not necessary correct.    

Release of Tallied Results 

On December 28th 2007 results of constituencies with predominantly ODM strongholds were released. This was welcome and was recommendable and showed efficiency in counting. This however created a big gap between the candidates that created a perception that ODM candidate had won. The IEBC should ensure that all counting areas report at the assessed time. The delay’s even for 48 hours in counting in some constituencies had to have a reason for this. Whereas the delay could have emerged for any number of reasons all reasons should be considered. This again will be based on system used and machines used.  

Announcing Results

ODM party would announce their election results as: Odinga 4,215,437, Kibaki 3,748,261, Kalonzo 630,849 that reflected 8,594,547 votes cast out of 14.2 million registered voters a 60% turnout. The ECK would announce the results as: Kibaki 4,584,721, Odinga 4,352,393, Kalonzo 879,905 a total of 9,817,019 or a turn out of 70%. From these two tallies the difference between the ECK and ODM results showed a difference of 836,460 votes for Kibaki, 136,959 for Odinga and 249,056 for Kalonzo a total of 1,222,475 votes. Two sets of results can never be announced ever again. This like the jury verdict was spark to start civil unrest in L.A, two sets of results meant there was never going to be a winner.  

The Judiciary and Supreme Court should advice all parties on the constitutional requirements. Further the civil liability to a political party for violation of any laws that may lead to destruction of others property. 

The Chairman of the IEBC should make it clear that no party should announce the results other than IEBC.